JTI’s illicit tobacco claims don’t add up

Last week, Japan Tobacco International (JTI) published findings from its latest survey, generating headlines in the retail press such as ‘Research shows illegal tobacco offered to nearly a third of UK public’.

The headline claim made by JTI is that 31% of people in the UK have been offered illicit tobacco. This appears to refer to the general population, rather than just smokers, although it isn’t entirely clear. It’s possible that the figure refers specifically to smokers, but it has been presented in a way that inflates the size of the problem.

As usual, JTI don’t specify who carried out the survey, what the methodology was, what the sample size was or how the questions were worded. This is a recurring issue with tobacco industry research, which is typically characterised by a lack of transparency compared with more reliable independent studies. 

But how credible are JTI’s figures, and how do they compare with evidence that is independent from the tobacco industry?

A recent survey of smokers in the North East of England, commissioned by Fresh, found that 32% of smokers in the region had been offered illegal tobacco, most of them infrequently. Applying this figure to the UK as a whole would equate to roughly 3% of the total population (around a third of smokers), not 31%. On that basis, JTI's estimate appears to overstate the scale of the problem by 90%.

This is nothing new. In their response to the latest national illicit tobacco estimates, JTI claimed that 42% of cigarettes consumed in the UK were illicit. If this is correct it would be the highest level off illicit cigarette consumption ever recorded. However, official data published by HMRC estimates that around 12% of cigarettes smoked in the UK are illicit, down from 20% in 2000 when the black market was at its peak. This aligns with estimates from Fresh that around 10% of tobacco consumed in the North East is illicit. While illicit tobacco remains a serious issue, the market appears to be only a fraction of the level claimed by JTI and other tobacco manufacturers. 

There are two possibilities. Either, JTI has identified a problem that every independent data source has somehow missed. Or this is another case of a tobacco company using dodgy stats or misleading reporting to cry wolf about the black market. This is part of a well-established strategy of exploiting concerns about the illicit market to lobby against tobacco control measures, while positioning tobacco companies as essential partners in enforcement.

The key ask from JTI in their PR campaign around illicit tobacco is for the Government to cancel the “double tax increase” on tobacco planned for the next budget. This will see tobacco taxes increased, first as part of the routine tax escalator and then again to maintain the price differential with vape liquids, which will be taxed for the first time.

The effect of failing to increase the tax as planned would be to make tobacco more affordable relative to much less harmful vaping products, weakening the incentive for smokers to switch to vaping. It is worth noting that JTI’s share of the UK vape market is small (they have a stake in the brand Logic) compared to its share of the tobacco market (approximately 45% of UK cigarette market).

None of this is to suggest that illicit tobacco is not a genuine issue. The illicit trade has strong links with organised crime and sellers often target children. Smokers who try illicit tobacco are much more likely to purchase it in the future, so reducing the availability of illegal tobacco in local communities must be a public health priority.

That’s why the UK Government has increased funding for enforcement to £30 million annually, contributing to more than 33 million illicit cigarettes being seized by Trading Standards over the last year. 

In the long term, the most effective way to reduce demand for all forms of tobacco, both legal and illegal, is to support more people to quit smoking. This means rejecting industry demands to cut taxes on tobacco and weaken regulations, while stepping up efforts to reduce smoking rates and create a smokefree generation.