New poll shows EVERY parliamentary constituency in Great Britain backs phasing out sale of tobacco

Monday 3rd June 2024

• Support in Great Britain averaged 69%,[1] and ranged between 57% and 74% for individual constituencies [2]
• Two thirds of 11-15 year olds also back the ban – the first generation to whom the sale of tobacco will be banned [3]

In the runup to the general election, ASH is publishing MRP (multi-level modelling and post-stratification) analysis by YouGov demonstrating majority support for phasing out the sale of tobacco among adults in every constituency in England, Scotland and Wales (Northern Ireland was not included in this poll).[2] The MRP analysis was carried out using a national survey of over 13,000 respondents, [1] and was commissioned by Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) and funded by Cancer Research UK.

The analysis based on the constituencies in the forthcoming general election found levels of support ranging between 57% and 74%, showing the extent to which this policy cuts across political and social lines.

The highest level of support, 74%, was found in Keir Starmer’s constituency of Holborn and St Pancras. The constituencies of other party leaders also showed strong support, with 72% of Rishi Sunak’s constituents in Richmond and Northallerton supporting the policy and 71% of constituents in Liberal Democrat leader, Ed Davey’s constituency of Kingston and Surbiton. All three leaders have backed the legislation. In SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn’s constituency of Aberdeen South 67% support the legislation and in Dwyfor Meirionnydd, Plaid Cymru Westminster group leader Liz Saville Roberts’ constituency, 67% are supportive.

Two-thirds of children aged 11-15 (67%) also supported the policy. This will be the first generation to be affected by the policy, which is planned to come into effect from 1 January 2027 so tobacco can never legally be sold to anyone aged 15 or under in 2024. In Spring 2023, before the policy was announced by the Prime Minister, there was already majority support for the idea in principle (57% support; 14% oppose). Support in 2024 for the specific proposals put forward by the government was ten points higher (67%), with opposition eight points lower (6%).[3]

Among adults opposition is also limited. Even in the constituency with the lowest level of support, North East Cambridgeshire with 57%, opposition was only 14% (the remaining 29% answered Don’t Know/Neither support nor oppose).

The average for the whole of Great Britain was 69% support, 12% oppose (19% DK/Neither support nor oppose). Support for the policy is high among voters of all parties, people from all social backgrounds and ages, and a majority of smokers also support the policy (52% support, 24% oppose).

ASH has created a tool so people can look up the support in their parliamentary constituency: https://ashresources.shinyapps.io/mrp_constituencies/

The overwhelming importance of the legislation was noted by political scientist Prof Sir John Curtice during his commentary on the political implications of the May local elections. He described the legislation as a ‘legacy that many a Prime Minister would die for’. [3]

Deborah Arnott, Chief Executive at ASH said:
“Whether red, blue, yellow or green, the public support for the ban on sale of tobacco to anyone born after 2008 is black and white. This enormously popular public health measure could put our country in pole position to be the first nation to end smoking.”

“This legislation is vital for the future of our children, as it will protect them from vaping as well as smoking. The incoming government, whoever they are, must commit to bringing it back as a priority when they announce their legislative programme in the King’s speech.”

Michelle Mitchell, Cancer Research UK’s chief executive, said:
“Public support to raise the age of sale for tobacco is strong. All political parties must commit to introducing the new law in their manifestos. At the first King’s Speech, whoever wins the election must re-introduce the bill, pass it swiftly through parliament, and implement it so that we can start to reap the benefits of a smokefree future.

“The message from people affected by cancer, health professionals and campaigners is loud and clear: we must take action to prevent future generations from a potential lifetime of addiction and disease and reduce cancer deaths.”

ENDS

Notes to the Editor
Action on Smoking and Health is a health charity working to eliminate the harm caused by tobacco use. For more information see: ash.org.uk. ASH receives funding for its programme of work from Cancer Research UK and the British Heart Foundation.

Contact: press@ash.org.uk. Deborah Arnott, Chief Executive, and Hazel Cheeseman, Deputy Chief Executive, are available for media interviews.

[1] Smokefree GB 2024 poll by YouGov Plc for ASH. Total sample size was 13266 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 29th February and 18th March 2024. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+).

Question used: The Government has announced legislation to raise the age of sale for tobacco for those born in 2009 or later by one year, every year, so it will never be legal to sell them tobacco. To what extent, if at all, would you support or oppose this measure?

Questions about support for policy in the 2024 ASH/YouGov poll were preceded by a question asking people: Were you aware that 2 out of 3 long-term smokers will die of smoking-related illnesses? This may have influenced some people’s responses and resulted in a higher level of support. The level of support found in the 2024 poll is, however, similar to the support found in other surveys including ASH/ YouGov Nov 2023 67% support, The Times/ YouGov September 2023 70%)

[2] YouGov MRP (multi-level modelling and post-stratification) model, using data collected for the 2024 Smokefree GB poll for ASH (see above) to calculate support by parliamentary constituencies in place for the general election in July. These are estimates based on modelling. Fieldwork was undertaken between 29th February and 18th
March 2024.

Constituency breakdowns available from ASH at: https://ashresources.shinyapps.io/mrp_constituencies/

[3] Data on 11-15 year olds taken from the ASH Smokefree GB Youth surveys. See below for the questions: in 2023 it was about the principle; in 2024 it was about the specific proposal the government had announced.

2024 Question: The Government has announced legislation to raise the age of sale for tobacco for those born in 2009 or later by one year, every year, so it will never be legal to sell them tobacco. To what extent, if at all, would you support or oppose this measure?

2023 Question: Do you support or oppose the following suggestion. Increase the age of sale from 18, by one year, every year until no one can buy a tobacco product in this country

Smokefree GB Youth survey 2024. Total sample size was 2,872 young people aged 11-18. There were 1,644 young people aged 11-15. Fieldwork was undertaken between 21st March and 23rd
April 2024.

The survey was carried out online by YouGov. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB young people aged 11-15.

Smokefree GB Youth surveys 2023. Total sample size was 2,656 young people aged 11-18. There were 1,280 young people aged 11-15. Fieldwork was undertaken between 21st March and 18th April 2023. The survey was carried out online by YouGov. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB young people aged 11-15.

[4] Professor Sir John Curtice on BBC TV on 4th May 2024. Available from https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1786767823005454731