Are tobacco and nicotine product sales falling?

New data reported in The Grocer from NIQ shows a significant decline in tobacco and nicotine product sales in the 12 months ending September 6, 2025. The data is from The Grocer’s Top Products Survey 2025 in association with NIQ which covers the top selling brands across the major multiples/supermarkets as well as online retailers, co-ops, off-licenses and independents. This is data gathered from participating retail outlets and will likely over-represent supermarket sales and under-represent convenience store and online sales. 

In this article we explore what the data can and can’t tell us and what is driving this shift and what it means for public health. 

Sales of tobacco products including cigarettes and rolling tobacco have declined substantially over the last year. This decline is likely driven by a combination of falling smoking rates and falling consumption (people smoking fewer cigarettes per day, not smoking every day or using less tobacco in hand rolled cigarettes) which has been seen in national surveys such as the Smoking Toolkit Study and the Annual Population Survey. Smoking rates have fallen to the lowest level on record, with 10.6% of UK adults smoking in 2024, compared to 11.1% in 2023. The decline in sales could also indicate increased use of illicit tobacco – though the long-term trend has been downward and there is no independent data to verify this.

The decline in tobacco sales is bad news for tobacco manufacturers but good news for public health and the wider economy. In 2025, smoking cost the UK £51.9 billion in lost economic productivity (through smokers earning less, being too sick to work and dying prematurely) and health and social care costs. This compares to £8 billion raised through tobacco duties. Fewer people smoking means fewer preventable deaths, less pressure on public services and improved economic productivity. 

Falling smoking rates mean tobacco products now account for a small and declining share of small retailers’ profits. Footfall from tobacco sales decreased by nearly 40% in small retail outlets between 2015 and 2022, while retail profit margins for tobacco products are around 8.5%, compared to 37% for vapes. Virtually all of the profit from tobacco sales goes to a handful of global manufacturers, not retailers.

The trend in falling tobacco sales is likely to continue with further tax rises planned in 2026 and a ban on selling tobacco to anyone born after 2008 kicking in from January 2027. 

Despite the overall decline in tobacco sales, HMRC data shows that sales of cigars (including cigarillos) are stable and make up a small but increasing share of overall tobacco sales. Use appears to be particularly concentrated among young people. Unpublished data from the ITC Youth & Young Adult Tobacco and Vaping Survey shows that use of cigars and cigarillos has tripled among 16-19 year olds in England since 2017, with 5.8% currently using cigarillos and 4.5% using cigars. Cigar-maker Scandinavian Tobacco Group UK recently described cigarillos as the “current success story” of the cigar category, highlighting that they account for 58% of cigars sold.

Cigars are taxed at a much lower rate than cigarettes and rolling tobacco and are not subject to regulations requiring standardised packaging, minimum pack sizes or banning flavours. Tobacco companies have exploited this loophole by introducing cigarillos which closely resemble cigarettes, with Japan Tobacco International recently launching a lemon flavoured cigarillo in the UK.

It is therefore no surprise that this category increasing its market share. The Government should close these loopholes to address the growing popularity of cigars among young people.

Vape sales have declined by 12.7% over the last year, although sales of closed-system ‘pod’ vapes have increased. The drop in vape sales is likely due to the disposable vapes ban in June 2025. Early evidence indicates that more people are reusing products and therefore buying fewer. A poll of British vapers carried out by Find Out Now on behalf of The Grocer following the disposable ban, found that 92% of vapers were using prefilled pod kits or refillable pods. The same proportion claimed that they always recharged and refilled their vapes.

Further monitoring is needed but the disposable ban does appear to have been effective for reducing use of single-use products. However, manufacturers and retailers need to do more to encourage consumers to re-use their vapes and ensure that vapes are properly recycled. 

The data also shows a 24% rise in sales of “smoking cessation products”, described in The Grocer as gum, lozenges and sprays. However, when we dig into this category we find that all the growth comes from nicotine pouch brands like Velo and Nordic Spirit, as well as Philip Morris’s Terea heated tobacco brand – which NIQ classifies as nicotine replacement products. Sales of licensed nicotine replacement products (like patches and gum) have barely grown over the last year. 

While nicotine pouches are a less harmful alternative to smoking, they are not licensed for smoking cessation and we don’t yet know if they are effective for helping people to quit. Heated tobacco products contain many of the same chemicals as combustible tobacco products, including cancer causing substances, and are not recommended for smoking cessation. 

While sales data can offer useful insights, it rarely tells the full story. The decline in tobacco and vape sales reflects broader shifts in consumer behaviour, regulation, and public health priorities – but media headlines often oversimplify these complex trends. What matters most is that fewer people are smoking, which means fewer preventable deaths, less strain on health services, and a stronger economy. At ASH, we’ll always welcome declining tobacco use (and yes, that means declining sales) as one more step toward a smokefree future.